At the 2023 Rugby World Cup, the four best sides in the world by a considerable margin - and ranked in the top four as such - were Ireland, South Africa, France and New Zealand. Yet, all four ended up on the same side of the draw and met in the quarter-finals.Â
Ireland - then ranked world No 1 and tournament favourites having recently beaten South Africa, New Zealand and France - and Les Bleus - World Cup hosts - were both dumped out ahead of the semi-final stage.
On the other side of the draw lay poor Wales and Argentina sides, Fiji, and a floundering England under Steve Borthwick - England and Argentina have improved a lot in the two years since.
The reason for such disparity in quality on either side lay in the fact the draw for the World Cup had inexplicably been performed three years prior to the tournament and based on world rankings at that point in time.
Indeed, by the time of the World Cup the No 1 and No 2-ranked sides on the planet were even within the same pool in Ireland and South Africa - Andy Farrell's side defeated the Springboks but packed their bags before the final four after defeat to New Zealand, while South Africa knocked out France, made the final and edged to another tournament success.
At the same time, Argentina made the semis before being destroyed 44-6 by the All Blacks, while England were fortunate to make a final-four match with South Africa following a number of years of poor performances. The quarter-finals proved to be the semis in all but name.
World Rugby recognised such a scenario was a mistake and stated an intention to undertake the World Cup draw closer to the tournament in future.
While football's FIFA World Cup conducts their draw six months out, World Rugby still saw fit to do theirs two years before the 2027 tournament this time around.
While two years out is better than three, a change in the structure of the Rugby World Cup to include more teams has brought up the issue of seedings once again.
By adding four nations to make it a 24-team tournament with six pools of four teams and a new round of 16, World Rugby seems to have only considered the top-ranked sides as an afterthought.
The net result is that with a random draw and hard-to-comprehend format where two pool winners avoid any other pool winners until the semi-finals but the other four are guaranteed to meet other pool winners in the quarters, the No 1 and No 2 ranked sides in the world in South Africa and New Zealand will meet in the quarter-finals should they top their pools and win round-of-16 contests as expected.
Four years on from the top sides finding themselves on the same side of the draw, the same issue looks likely to reoccur. How?
Imagine Wimbledon where Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner could meet in the quarters instead of avoiding one another until the final - should they both make it - as reward for their top seedings in the world.
The FIFA World Cup structure ensures the top four seeds in the world cannot meet until the semi-finals. The fact World Rugby has failed to mirror such a structure is confusing.
As a result, South Africa, New Zealand and France - if they win their pools - will all end up on the same side of the draw, while England and Ireland will avoid those three sides until the final.
Should England top their pool - and facing Wales, Tonga and Zimbabwe, they absolutely should - they would not face another pool winner until the semi-finals.
If Ireland top their pool, they would likely have a quarter-final against Argentina to make history and book a first World Cup semi-final place. Not easy by any stretch, but certainly easier than facing South Africa, New Zealand or France.
Under the previous Rugby World Cup format, the top four ranked sides in the world would avoid each other until the semi-finals provided they topped their pools - a fact which became a moot point in 2023 due to the illogical timing of the draw in 2020.
Whereas for 2027, there appears no material difference to being ranked sixth in the world (Argentina) to first or second (Springboks and All Blacks).
England drawing Wales in their pool may be a headline but they avoided the likes of hosts Australia and Scotland from the same band.
Steve Borthwick's side also landed in one of the most desired pools in E or F - reason being, the pool winners of those two pools avoid other pool winners until the semi-finals. Every other pool winner will face another in the quarters. France were the other fortunate side in this respect.
One small note of warning: while England's quarter-final is scheduled to be against a pool runner-up, this would be from Pool A, so is likely to be hosts Australia. Borthwick's side are a stronger outfit than the Wallabies, but home advantage could be huge.
All in all, the luck of the draw seems to have been more advantageous than world ranking once again this time around. Surely World Rugby must change that in the future?
The simple part of the format is that the top two teams from each pool will progress into the final 16. They will be joined by the four best third-place nations.
The tournament takes place in Australia from October 1 to November 13 2027.
